Limitations of Indigenous Struggle & Achievability Factor While Deciding For J&K’s Accession or Independence A Rational Analysis & An Open Invitation for Discussion to All Advocates of Independent Kashmir
Indigenous (Kashmir-only) effort on our part cannot yield us desired results, for the fact that it has some serious flaws and understanding those flaws is a must. This suggestion should not be taken in a pessimistic way or as a discouraging discourse, but in the light of facts and validity of our argument. This discussion should be scholarly in nature, than ugly and uncivilized. Further, it is not intended to create mistrust and undue grudge against each other, but to cultivate a healthy society patient enough to look for pros and cons of the decisions we make.
I have firm belief that we are a capable lot and we can produce global leaders. We are hard working, talented, sincere and highly motivated for accomplishing the mission we have undertaken. However, ignoring ground realties, underestimating opponent, negating dynamic nature of current geo-political scenario and exaggerating one’s own strength and thus efforts are detrimental, if ignored in deciding the methodology of our struggle.
Ground realities
a) India is a mighty country and its exhaustion, weakness or fatigue is unexpected, at least in near future.
b) Armed struggle cannot fetch us territorial gains, but at the most, it will bring India on to the negotiating table. However, armed struggle in Kashmir has faded, and even if revived, it will be bloody and won’t help much.
c) Public protests, even of the order of 1990’s and 2008 -10’s could not yield results. In future, anything less or equal to that won’t shake India. India, to some extent, has become immune to such periodic mass movements.
d) Pakistan’s current situation is such that its current government cannot pressurize India.
e) India has strong business ties with world powers and even with leading Muslim countries.
f) India is growing and becoming more and more influential.
Deduction-1: India is a mighty influential nation and exerting pressure on it needs more than what we as Kashmiri’s have or could have done.
UN’s dubious role & futility of our protests
a) UN in past has failed to protect Muslim interests in Afghanistan, Iraq, Palestine, Pakistan, Chechnya, Iran & Kashmir. But it didn’t fail in creating and protecting Israel, liberating East Timor, in invasion against Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. While developing our course of action should we, or should we not consider this trend in UN deliverance policy.
b) Our public protests are not incurring any direct loss on to India. These protests are aimed to win world sympathy and pressurize India through UN or US. In this scenario considering our struggle against mighty India as indigenously adequate is nothing but imprudence. Our struggle is highly dependent on external support that our protests may or may not yield. However, at the outset, external influential and potential helpers like US and UN, being innately indisposed towards Muslim causes, render our protests futile.
c) Inverse analysis however, brings forth that Global extremism has risen and entire world is scared of Muslims. Today, world will not easily let any Muslim region succeed and permit emergence of an exemplary Muslim state. West wants moderate, secular, liberal, democratic and westernized disposition in Muslims. Muslims on the contrary have always tried to resist any sort of alien influence. This cold war is on an increasing trend. Without classifying this trend as positive or negative, we must acknowledge, that it is there acting as a hindrance, to put across the demand for an independent Kashmir, which obviously will be Muslim majority state.
Deduction-2: It is very much unlikely that UN, US, EU or West will come to our rescue; neither can we double-cross them by pretending to be altogether secular.
Indian stand point and thus our hurdles
India cannot act generously in resolving Kashmir for its own good reasons;
a) Setting Kashmir free dangers total disintegration of India.
b) It can encourage insurgencies in north-east, south and Punjab.
c) It can cause rise in Hindu fundamentalism and can trigger nationwide riots.
d) It can be harmful for 200 million Indian Muslims.
e) It can destroy its so called secular fabric.
f) It can aggravate Naxal problem.
Deduction-3:While exercising choice between “loss” and “big loss”, surely “loss” is opted for. The day India perceives Kashmir as a loss to avert big loss, it will leave us. But what circumstances, how and who will drag India to choose between “loss and “big loss” is the subject that needs to be assessed.
Our drawbacks
a) India has well developed and fully functional pro-Indian lobby in Kashmir.
b) India exploits our bread and butter issues to stay with them.
c) We can’t help stop people participating in elections and pro-India activities.
d) India lures and attracts our youth to rich and progressing Indian markets.
e) Indian developmental schemes are temptation that most of us fail to resist.
f) Our indigenous efforts against mighty India suffer from fatigue and exhaustion.
Deduction-4:We require somebody sincere to hold front on our part, as long as we are silent, dormant or in hiatus. We need somebody, who can from outside scrutinize our struggle, while being comparatively pressure and influence free?
Assumptions
Let us assume that we have succeeded in bringing India on to the negotiating table. I repeat, this is an assumption (a huge one) that India agrees to negotiate over the demand of Azadi. This assumption requires another assumption that in spite of advocating Azadi, we will be friendly with Pakistan. While bargaining it is likely that;
a) Much of the Jammu province will go to India.
b) Ladakh will also go to India.
c) Gilgit, Baltistan will be retained in Pakistan.
d) Aksichin will continue to be held by china.
e) At maximum, few districts of valley, 2-3 districts from Jammu and AJK will be what can emerge as an independent Kashmir.
f) Land locked on all sides, it will be nothing more than, Nepal, Bhutan or Bangladesh and totally dependent on its neighbor’s.
Deduction-5: Geo-political limits of Independent Kashmir will not be one as we see it today on the world maps. It will be a small region slightly bigger than valley.
What does current geo political scenario teach us?
a) Countries like Bhutan and Nepal are not fully sovereign but pseudo sovereign.
b) Even nuclear armed countries like Pakistan duck to American pressure.
c) Even wealthiest Arab countries are not truly independent; they in spite of wishing could not help stop butchering of Gazan people, living in their own backyard.
d) Economic requirements supersede, even over the ideal of sovereignty.
Deduction-6: India’s ouster guaranties end to widespread confrontation with India, but it does not guaranty absolute sovereignty.
Apprehensions (If all of us support independent state, what kind of political scenario can emerge)?
a) In the process of resolution, nationalism will be the yard stick dominating Islamic values.
b) Sentiment of Kashmiri nationalism will strengthen in AJK, Gilgat and Baltistan.
c) Apart from India, Pakistan will fear losing territory and thus its interests in AJK, Gilgat and Baltistan.
d) Pakistani nationalistic sentiment can be in direct confrontation with Kashmiri nationalistic sentiment.
e) Pakistan will not only stop supporting us, but can create hurdles in Kashmir resolution.
f) India will attempt luring pro-independence camp, as call for standalone independence, opens a window of opportunity (a ray of hope) for Indian think-tank, to get hold of Kashmir through internal negotiations. I am not pointing my finger towards commitment of any pro independence leader, neither do I doubt. But this is the perception that governs Indian psychology while dealing with pro-independence camp.
g) We along with People in AJK, Gilgat and Baltistan will feel alienated from both sides.
h) Every progressing step towards Independent Kashmir will push Kashmir, more towards looking like Kurdistan than as Palestine.
i) Freedom struggle with its momentum increased will have more chances to die a spontaneous death.
j) Ultimately Indian stand and its occupation in Indian held Kashmir will be strengthened.
Deduction-7:At the outset, inclination shown by Indian strategists towards the concept of “Independence” is insincere and deceitful. When option of independence didn’t exist even in the UN Resolutions, in six decade old history of Kashmir, wasn’t it our mindset, engineered or hacked from being pro-Pakistanis to pro-independence?
What should be our strategy?
A good strategy can be drawn by considering all the above factors (Deductions 1 to 7) simultaneously. Let us analyze further and try to develop it, by rigorously questioning ourselves.
What should be our strategic objective to accomplish our mission? And as a matter of fact, what are the required resources to carry forward any struggle? What to target and what should be the target?
A deep and careful study of these questions, will lead us to a conclusion that the primary resource required is a favorable human being. Not his physical being, but his opinion, his view, his stand point and his ideology. Human beings are essential and most important resource in the kind of struggle we are in. Let us assume all Kashmir’s want freedom; this implies that we have with us a maximum of 10 million human resources. It is huge, but nothing in comparison to Indian human resource, which is of the order of 1000million. Ratio is of the order of (1:100) and this ratio again suggests negligible and poor success through our indigenous efforts. If we are able to motivate, say 50-60% people from Indian populace, we will get independence the next day. But what is the achievability index of getting Indian masses on our side?
How should we multiply our human resources? How can we generate mass opinion in our favour? How to make our human resource of 10million, become 20million, 40million, 60million and so on.
Our potential strengths (If all of us support merger with Pakistan, what will it reflect on the ground?)
a) In the process of resolution, Islam will be the yard stick dominating nationalistic values.
b) Euphoric sense of Islamic brotherhood will develop not only in Pakistan and Kashmir, but in the entire Muslim world.
c) On behalf of religious sentiment of 18 crore Muslim-Pakistanis, its Government can be employed in colliding vigorously with India on all possible fronts.
d) Pro-Pakistan administration of AJK, Gilgat and Baltistan will augment supporting merger with Pakistan.
e) Kashmir will dominate Pak-politics.
f) Pakistan’s strategic importance in Muslim world can help equate Kashmir with Palestine.
g) UN Resolutions, where there are only two options (Choosing between India and Pakistan) will redeem legitimacy.
h) India will fail to create a wedge in between Kashmiri’s and Pakistanis, which will bolster our efforts and may hurl India on to the back foot.
Conclusion:
Past 64 years have taught us that Indian civil society (including Muslims living in there) on account of events that have occurred, ever since the partition of the Indian-subcontinent will not concede to our demands. So, if it is not Indian masses, why cannot we divert our attention and target Pakistani public! Why cannot we concentrate winning 180 million friendly Pakistani Muslims? Winning them is winning Pakistani government. Winning Pakistani government is winning Saudi Arabia. Winning Saudi Arabia is winning entire Muslim world. Two billion Muslims are at our disposal, why do we ignore them, their potential, their view and their stand point.
If, in the capacity of a Muslim, Muslim Kashmiris’ fail to win favor of our own Muslim brethren, how and why should we expect others to favor us? And
a) How justified is it to focus on wining those, where winning potential is less.(Indian masses, UN, US, West)
b) How justified is it to ignore those, where our winning potential is more.(Pakistani public, Arabs, World Muslims)
We can look around the world, and ask ourselves this question, which nation, which area, which population is easy to win. We should assess, estimate and exert to have their opinion in our favor, so that our basic required resource multiplies.
In my humble opinion, this attitude is need of an hour, and it is a step forward towards shaping the strategy of our struggle. For independence, UN or US is not going to help us, but we have to look for help from within ourselves, within Muslim Ummaha. Local/Region centric strategies adopted by leaders, whether in Kashmir, Palestine, Pakistan or middle-east have failed to generate solution to miseries, globally faced by Muslims. We must understand that Indigenous struggle can be success only and only, if India turns out to be generous, but should we wait for it to turn generous or devise plans to move ahead?
My sincere suggestion is to win an easy target of 180-200 million Pakistani Muslims. We can propose autonomy! Yes Autonomy! But this time, within the domain of Pakistan. Attracting them, making use of their available potential and playing the great game, is need of an hour. It is not just heart & emotion, but ruthless and cruel mind and brains we need to work with. When we raise a slogan, Aaaar say lengay, Paaar say lengay. we are not winning anything but losing 180-200 million potential Pakistani helpers, A precious Resource!
Suggested Link : http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/south_asia/03/kashmir_future/html/7.stm
Regards
Mubashir
Admin (Facebook Page)
Kashmir - Integral Part of Global Islamic Khilafa State
(K.I.P of G.I.K.S)
